The 2025 election produced a Liberal minority government, but the race for 2026 shows a dramatic swing. This guide breaks down the latest federal election polls in Canada, explains how they work, and helps you make sense of where things stand heading into the next election. As of April 27, 2025, the aggregated CBC News Poll Tracker (Canada’s public broadcaster) showed the Liberal Party leading nationally.
Date of latest aggregated poll: 27 April 2025 ·
Current leader in aggregated polls: Liberal Party ·
Primary projection source: CBC News Poll Tracker
Quick snapshot
- The 2025 Canadian federal election produced a Liberal minority government (Wikipedia).
- Mark Carney is the current Liberal Party leader (The Telegraph).
- Nanos Research releases weekly tracking polls (Nanos Research).
- CBC News Poll Tracker combines multiple poll sources (CBC News).
- Post-election polling for the 46th election began after 28 April 2025 (Wikipedia).
- Nanos weekly tracking and other major poll updates are ongoing through 2025-2026. (Wikipedia)
- The 46th federal election must be called by 2026; campaigns will intensify. (338Canada (independent electoral projection model))
- Projections from 338Canada (independent electoral projection model) and the CBC Poll Tracker (public broadcaster) will continue to update with each new poll.
The pattern is clear: the race has shifted sharply since the 2025 election.
Here is the key data:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Latest aggregated poll date | 27 April 2025 |
| Current leading party | Liberal Party |
| Next scheduled election | On or before 2026 |
| Primary projection source | CBC News Poll Tracker |
| Key pollsters | Nanos, Mainstreet, Leger, Angus Reid |
What are the latest federal opinion polls in Canada?
What do the most recent polls show for each major party?
- The CBC News Poll Tracker (Canada’s public broadcaster), aggregating multiple polls as of April 27, 2025, showed the Liberal Party leading with support above 40%, followed by the Conservatives.
- 338Canada (independent statistical projection model) indicated a Liberal advantage in seat projections ahead of the 2025 vote.
- Mainstreet Research (Canadian polling firm) reported a clear advantage for the Liberals under Mark Carney in late April 2025.
“The Liberals hold a clear advantage in the closing days of the campaign.”
— Mainstreet Research
The pattern: pre-election polling consistently favored the Liberals. But once the 2025 election was over, the picture changed dramatically.
How do the polls compare to the 2025 election results?
The 2025 election delivered a Liberal minority government with 43.8% of the popular vote versus 41.3% for the Conservatives, according to Wikipedia (encyclopedia with extensive electoral data). A YouGov MRP model projected 185 Liberal seats to 135 Conservative seats. That outcome matched the polling average within the margin of error.
Which pollster is reporting the latest numbers?
As of June 2025, PoliWave (poll aggregator) reported tracking 168 polls from 17 pollsters for the federal election. Their latest listed poll was dated May 24, 2026, from Pallas Data, and another from Liaison Strategies on May 16, 2026 — though those fall into the 46th election cycle.
Pre-election numbers from April 2025 show a Liberal lead, but post-election polling for the 2026 race tells a different story. Voters rewarded the Liberals in 2025; whether that loyalty holds is the open question.
What does the Nanos poll say about Canada today?
What is the Nanos Research methodology?
Nanos Research (Canadian public opinion and market research firm) uses live telephone interviews and online panels with a random sample of Canadians. Their weekly tracking is a gold standard for media references.
How often does Nanos release new polling data?
Nanos publishes a weekly tracking poll, often cited by major outlets like the Globe and Mail and CTV News. The most recent publicly available data (pre-2025 election) showed the Liberals ahead.
What are the latest Nanos results for party support?
In the period leading up to the April 28, 2025 election, Nanos consistently placed the Liberals in the lead. For the current 2026 cycle, Nanos data will be released periodically — check their site for the latest numbers.
The implication: Nanos offers a reliable pulse-check, but like all polls, it captures a snapshot, not a forecast.
What are the latest polls for the 2026 Canadian federal election?
When is the 2026 federal election expected?
The 46th Canadian federal election must occur on or before October 2026, per fixed-date election laws, though a snap election could be called earlier by the prime minister.
Which parties are currently leading in early 2026 polling?
Early 2026 polls show a sharp swing. According to Wikipedia’s polling table for the 46th election (compiled from multiple sources), Abacus Data on April 22, 2026 put the Conservatives at 54% and the Liberals at 29%. Léger on April 26, 2026 reported 57% Conservative vs. 35% Liberal. That’s a stark reversal from the 2025 result.
How do 2026 numbers compare to the 2025 election outcome?
The 2025 baseline was Liberals 43.8% to Conservatives 41.3%. The 2026 polls suggest a Conservative lead of 20+ points — a dramatic shift that reflects changing leadership (Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau) and post-election dynamics.
“If an election were held today, who would win?”
— CBC News Poll Tracker question
A 20-point swing in one year is rare in Canadian politics. For the Liberals, holding government now looks like an uphill battle. For Conservatives, it signals a real chance to retake power — but polls this far out are fragile.
How are federal election polls conducted and what do they measure?
What is a scientific opinion poll?
A scientific poll uses random sampling to represent the electorate. Respondents are selected probabilistically so that every Canadian voter has a known chance of being included. Results are weighted by region, age, and other demographics.
How do pollsters determine sample size?
Sample sizes for national polls typically range from 1,000 to 2,000 respondents. Larger samples reduce the margin of error but cost more. The standard margin of error for a 1,000-person poll is about ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level.
What is the margin of error?
The margin of error (MOE) reflects the range within which the true population value lies. For a typical Canadian federal poll with 1,200 respondents, the MOE is ±2.8%. EKOS Research (Canadian polling firm) and other reputable pollsters always report this.
The trade-off: bigger MOE means less certainty, but even a small MOE cannot account for late-breaking shifts or turnout differences.
Understanding margins of error is critical: a 2% swing can flip dozens of seats, making any single poll unreliable without context.
Where can I find reliable and up-to-date Canadian federal polling data?
What are the best websites for Canadian poll tracking?
- CBC News Poll Tracker (public broadcaster) — aggregates multiple polls into a single projection.
- 338Canada (independent electoral projection model) — created by Philippe J. Fournier, uses a statistical model combining polls, history, and demographics.
- Mainstreet Research (polling firm) — publishes frequent national and provincial data.
- Angus Reid (non-profit research institute) — provides regular polls on voting intentions.
- Leger (market research firm) — large-sample online polling.
- Ipsos (global research firm) — Canadian politics tracker.
How does the CBC Poll Tracker work?
The CBC Tracker combines polls from multiple sources, weighting them by recency and sample size, to produce a “if the election were held today” projection. It updates automatically as new polls are released.
Is 338Canada a good source?
338Canada is widely respected for its transparent methodology and consistent accuracy. It is not a pollster but a projection model. Philippe J. Fournier, the creator, is often interviewed by media for his analysis.
The implication: no single source tells the full story. Cross-referencing the CBC Tracker, 338Canada, and individual pollster reports gives the clearest picture.
If you want historical data, Elections Canada (federal election authority) is the official repository for past results.
Timeline of key polling events
- 28 April 2025 — 45th Canadian federal election held (Wikipedia).
- Early 2025 — Mark Carney becomes Liberal leader (The Telegraph).
- April 2025 — Post-election polling begins for the 46th federal election.
- Ongoing (2025-2026) — Weekly Nanos tracking and other major poll updates.
What we know vs. what’s still uncertain
Confirmed facts
- The 2025 election produced a Liberal minority government.
- Mark Carney is the current Liberal Party leader.
- Nanos Research releases weekly tracking polls.
- CBC News Poll Tracker combines multiple poll sources.
What’s unclear
- Exact date of the 46th federal election (must occur by 2026).
- Whether the Liberal lead will hold over time.
- Impact of regional shifts on final seat counts.
“The margin-of-error discussions around seat projections are crucial — a 2% swing can flip dozens of seats.”
— Philippe J. Fournier, 338Canada
The pattern is clear: polls shift rapidly, and the only number that matters is the one on election day. Whether the Liberals hold power or the Conservatives return depends on the campaign to come.
For a deeper dive into the specific numbers, check out the latest Nanos and Ipsos polling data that tracks the dramatic shifts in voter support.
Frequently asked questions
How often are Canadian federal election polls updated?
Major pollsters like Nanos release weekly tracking polls. Aggregators like the CBC Poll Tracker update as soon as new data is published.
What is the margin of error for typical Canadian political polls?
For a national sample of 1,000-1,200 respondents, the margin of error is approximately ±2.8% to ±3.1% at the 95% confidence level.
Why do different pollsters show varying numbers?
Differences in methodology (phone vs. online, sample weighting, timing) and question wording cause variation. That’s why aggregators are valuable.
How does the CBC Poll Tracker aggregate polls?
It combines polls from multiple firms, giving more weight to recent polls and those with larger sample sizes, then produces a weighted average.
What is a scientific poll vs. an online straw poll?
A scientific poll uses random sampling and weighting to represent the population. Straw polls are non-scientific, often self-selected, and unreliable.
Where can I find historical polling data for Canada?
Wikipedia’s polling pages for each election, plus archives from Angroid, Leger, and the CBC Poll Tracker, offer historical data. Elections Canada provides official election results.
Do polls accurately predict election outcomes in Canada?
Polls are generally accurate within the margin of error, but they cannot account for last-minute shifts, turnout variations, or regional surprises. They are snapshots, not crystal balls.
Related reading: Canada Election 2025 Results: Liberals Win Minority Government · Alcohol Tax Cuts Ontario: 2025 Budget Changes Explained
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Sophie Chen covers culture, society and long-form features across Canada.